Military contingency plans, they say, are just a routine exercise in scenario planning.
The Quarterly: You’re a critic of scenario planning. Is there a way to do it effectively?
Pierre Wack (1922-1997) was an unconventional French oil executive who developed the use of scenario planning (see article) at Royal Dutch Shell’s London headquarters in the 1970s.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb: I don't like scenario planning, because people don't think out of the box.
So scenario planning may focus on four, five, or six scenarios that you can envision, at the expense of others you can't.
